0430Z Radar/04-05Z Precip Real-time Run Slide 45 of 52

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This slide shows the 0431Z (1230 am) BGM radar image overlaid with the MM5 (real-time configuration run) forecast 1-hour accumulated precipitation between 04 and 05Z (midnight and 1 am). The rainfall contours are every 0.05 inches. This 17 hour forecast shows that the MM5 simulation, other than being slightly too far north, did a very good job simulating the time and place of the developing bow echo.

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Go to slide: 1: THE LABOR DAY 1998 DERECHO 2: THE LABOR DAY 1998 DERECHO 3: EVENT OVERVIEW 4: Damage Photos 5: HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE 6: Post 1AM Severe Weather Reports 7: July 15, 1995 8: SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW 9: 12Z September 6th Surface Analysis 10: 12Z BUF (red/green) / PIT(blue) Skew-t 11: 12Z 850mb 12: 12Z Surface Plot 13: 12Z 250 mb 14: 15Z Surface Plot 15: 18Z Surface Plot 16: 21Z Surface Plot 17: 00Z 850 mb 18: 00Z BUF Skew-t 19: 12/00Z BUF Skew-t 20: 00Z Surface Plot 21: 00Z 250 mb (12-hr Eta forecast) 22: 00Z 250 mb Divergence 23: 03Z Surface Plot / BUF radar 24: 05Z Surface Divergence 25: 06Z 250 mb (18-hr Eta Forecast) 26: CONCEPTUAL MODELS 27: Bow Echo Evolution 28: Fujita Bow Echo Morphology 29: Radar Loop - July 15, 1995 30: HP Supercell to Bow Echo Evolution 31: BUF Radar - 0321Z 32: STORM EVOLUTION 33: BUF RADAR LOOP 34: BGM RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP 35: BGM RADAR VELOCITY LOOP 36: A GLIMPSE AT THE FUTURE 37: A GLIMPSE AT THE FUTURE 38: Eta Precip Forecast 00-06Z 39: Eta Precip Forecast - 06-12Z 40: MM5 at NWS Binghamton 41: MM5 Terrain - 20 km grid 42: Modeling the Labor Day Derecho 43: Observed Rainfall Totals 44: MM5 Run - Real-Time Configuration 45: 0430Z Radar/04-05Z Precip Real-time Run 46: MM5 Sensitivity Runs 47: MM5 Sensitivity Runs 48: Betts-Miller - 04Z Radar/04-05Z Precip 49: Betts-Miller - 05Z Radar/05-06Z Precip 50: Betts-Miller - 06Z Radar/06-07Z Precip 51: Observed and Betts-Miller 00-12Z Precip 52: MM5 Simulations - Summary