Models were in agreement that cyclogenesis would occur off the mid-Atlantic coast in association with a short wave tracking northeast, well to the east of the main upper-level trough.
There were significant differences in the model forecast surface low tracks and QPF, with the NAM much farther west, and heavier in our area.
Differences in the mid-troposphere included a sharper 500 mb short-wave with the NAM forecast, and the 700 mb closed low much farther southwest with the NAM forecast.