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Speaker Notes:

The 28/00 UTC model runs were selected for a detailed examination for 2 reasons. First, those were the runs available to forecaters when warning decisions needed to be made. Second, they were reasonably representative, in terms of their biases, of model runs from adjacent model cycles. Specifically, the NAM forecast at 28/00 UTC forecast the track of the surface low much farther west than the GFS. As such, the 28/00 UTC NAM and GFS were considered representative of the model runs from adjacent model run cycles.