Summary of the 1/5/05 12 UTC Model Forecasts

  • The Eta and other models were forecasting a significant precipitation event early on the 6th, with a significant portion of the precipitation over northeast Pa forecast to be freezing rain.

  • The precipitation would be driven by persistent favorable dynamics in the right rear quad of an upper level jet, including a strengthening 850 mb southerly jet and unusually high values of precipitable water.

  • A significant northerly agesotrophic wind component was being forecast below 900 mb during the event.

  • 1000-900 mb easterly low-level flow was forecast to be associated with near neutral temperature advection through 12 UTC, while strong warm advection and upward vertical motion was forecast aloft.

  • The ageostrophic wind appeared to be in response to strong frontogenesis.

  • Surface pressure falls were forecast over the eastern Great Lakes in association with deepening low pressure in that area. High pressure was forecast to retreat across eastern New England.

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