Summary of the Eta and GFS 22/00 UTC Forecasts

  • Both models trended deeper with the mid-level cyclone, developing a closed low by 06 UTC on the 23rd.

  • Both models trended deeper with the surface low, with little difference in intensity (988 mb) or location (southeast of Long Island) by 06 UTC on the 23rd.

  • The Eta continued to have more QPF, farther north than the GFS, possible due to slightly stronger mid-level frontogenesis, and a stronger lower branch (southeasterly flow) of the resulting circulation.

  • The best banding signals in our area appeared to be over northeast Pennsylvania and southern New York around 00 UTC on the 23rd.

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