850 mb temperatures at BGM valid December 16, 12z
Notes:
The data on this slide shows the model trend of the 850 mb temperature at BGM valid on December 16, 12z. The actual temperature (from the RUC analysis) was -1 degree C. The NAM made a big jump to a warmer forecast between the 48 and 36 hour forecast. The other models and ensembles were slower to trend warmer. The NAM was the only model that accurately forecast an 850 mb as high as -1 degrees C. Note that even warmer air in moved above 850 mb, resulting in a change to sleet and freezing rain during the early morning on the 16th at BGM.
Slide 17