Model Trends Continued

  • Ensemble mean forecasts were weaker with the primary low at the surface and 700 mb (no surprise).

  • Ensemble mean position of key features were not an improvement over the operational guidance (resolution may have been critical in this case).

  • GFS ensembles followed the operational GFS regarding temperature – both were poor.

  • SREF temperatures trended correctly warmer, but lagged behind the more correct operational NAM.



Slide 19