Model Trends Continued
Ensemble mean forecasts were weaker with the primary low at the surface and 700 mb (no surprise).
Ensemble mean position of key features were not an improvement over the operational guidance (resolution may have been critical in this case).
GFS ensembles followed the operational GFS regarding temperature – both were poor.
SREF temperatures trended correctly warmer, but lagged behind the more correct operational NAM.
Slide 19