How good is that RUC analysis?
Notes:
The RUC 3 hour forecast valid at 12z on December 16 indicated a verifying surface low pressure center over northern Ohio, much farther north than earlier runs of the NAM. A look at observations indicated that the RUC was actually not strong enough with either than primary or secondary low pressure center. The lowest observed sea-level pressure over the Ohio Valley at 12z on the 16th was 991 mb just south of Toledo, Oh.|
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RUC Surface Pressure and Temperatures Sun 1200 UTC 16-Dec-2007 Surface Plot Sun 1200 UTC 16-Dec-2007 Analysis Sun 1200 UTC 16-Dec-2007 |
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Slide 9