Probability of precipitation greater than 0.01 from the 03z / 15z SREF Valid 00z 11/19
Notes:
The data on this slide shows output from the short range ensemble (SREF), run at NCEP. The SREF is a multi-model ensemble which includes input from the 32 km Eta model, a 45 km resolution version of the GFS model, and various 40 to 45 km resolution versions of the WRF. The probability of greater than 0.01 inches of precipitation through 00 UTC on the 19th is snow from the 03z 11/18 run of the SREFs on the first image, and from the 15z 11/18 run of the SREFs on the second image. Probabilities of measurable precipitation at AVP by 00 UTC were shown to be around 70 percent on the 03z run, and increased to around 80 percent on the 15z run.|
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0300 UTC 18-Nov-2007 Run 1500 UTC 18-Nov-2007 Run |
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Slide 16