500 mb heights – GFS forecast vs. analog mean
Notes:
An experimental winter storm forecast guidance system currently being developed at the University of Saint Louis works by ingesting forecasts from the GFS model, than going back through the North American Regional Reanalyisis (NARR) data set to find historical analogs to the current forecast. Images like those shown on the next several slides can be found in real time at http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php.The data on this slide shows the mean 500 mb heights from 15 events determined by the system to be the best analogs to this event (in black). The 500 mb GFS height forecast valid at 12z on the 31st is shown in red.
Slide 16