Percent correct p-type forecast – December 16
Notes:
The data on the next few slides shows the percentage of “correct” forecasts from 12-24 hour NAM and GFS forecasts, based on output from the algorithms available on BUFKIT, on December 16th. Data was collected at AVP, BGM and SYR. A forecast was counted as correct if the observed precipitation type matched the algorithm forecast. If a mixture of more than one precipitation type was observed, the algorithm was counted as being correct if the output matched one of the observed precipitation types. (for example, if the algorithm forecast sleet, it would be counted as correct if a mix of sleet and freezing rain was observed). The results of this study indicated that the GFS had slightly superior algorithm output vs. the NAM, on December 16th.
Slide 22