Summary
- Deep southwest flow aloft, main upper-level forcing remains to the west.
- Surface low-pressure over the Great Lakes, warm front over central New York moving north.
- Surface dew points were in the mid 60s north of the warm front.
- Observed soundings indicated development of steep lapse rates above the surface-based stable layer north of the warm front, strong veering winds.
- RUC/NMA soundings indicate development of CAPE values greater than 1000 J/kg immediately south of the warm front.
- Checklist with previous events indicate some tornado potential.
Slide 9
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