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Summary

• GFS/GEFs models were consistent with low pressure location along the New Jersey coast, but trended stronger as the event approached.
• The NAM was too far west in early runs, then trended toward the GFS.
• Historical analogs based on earlier, weaker GFS runs indicated the best potential for heavy snow would be northeast of our area.
• SREF plumes indicated too much liquid precipitation at BGM, possibly due to influence of warmer 32-35 km WRF/Eta solutions.