21z September 6 and 03z September 7th SREF probability of 2+ inches
Notes:
Model forecasts prior to this storm consistently forecast the axis of heaviest precipitation from central Pennsylvania north to west central New York. The data on this slide shows forecast probabilities of greater than 2 inches, from the SREF run at 21z on the 6th and 3z on the 7th. Both runs indicated the highest probabilities of heaviest rainfall about 50 miles too far west.
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SREF 24hr PoP > 1.00 inch - Thu 0600 UTC 08-Sep-2011 SREF 24hr PoP > 2.00 inch - Thu 0600 UTC 08-Sep-2011 |
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Slide 15