Convective parameter plumes
Notes:
SREF plumes of MLCAPE for Elmira indicated large uncertainty during the afternoon on the 26th, with values ranging from below 1000 J/kg to over 3000 J/kg. This was likely due to the fact that the ELM would be near a strong gradient of CAPE. Most of the forecasts indicated values from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. 0 to 1.5 km (or surface to 850 mb) shear values were forecast near 20 ms-1, or 40 kts, which is quite large.
Slide 11