SPC storm scale ensemble 00z run reflectivity > 40 dbz valid 21z
Notes:
The data from the next several slides are from the Storm Prediction Centers Storm-Scale Ensemble of Opportunity. This is a ensemble of high resolution models including the WRF-ARW run by NSSL, the HRW WRF ARW, HRW NMMB, and the 4 km NAM. Data from the 00z run of the ensemble is shown on this slide. The slide on the left shows the probability of reflectivity greater than 40 dbz based on output from the ensemble members, valid at 21z. High probabilities are indicated over New York and Pennsylvania. The data on the right are reflectivity forecasts from all of the members of the ensemble, displayed in "spaghetti plot" format. Long lines of convection are indicating, implying the potential for lines of damaging wind.
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Slide 15