Summary
- Solar heating ahead of the surface cold front resulted in modest MLCAPE values during the early afternoon on the 2nd, but by the time the front approached with stronger environmental winds, the MLCAPE was rapidly diminishing.
- Sounding parameter-based analogs for this day generally indicated minor event with little tornado potential.
- High resolution models and ensembles indicated the likelyhood of a linear storm evolution, but the ensembles did not indicate severe characteristics.
Slide 25