Storm-scale ensemble forecasts
Notes:
The SPC storm-scale ensemble forecasts for this event indicated high probabilities for 40+ dbz reflectivity over central New York during the afternoon on the 14th, with areas of heavy rain. Mean rainfall from the ensemble exceeded 2 inches in small areas in a stripe from the Finger Lakes toward Broome county, NY. The chance for rotating updrafts was mainly confined to Pennsylvania.
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Slide 18