4 km NAM valid 12z 15th (left) and 18z 15th (right)
Notes:
By 12 UTC, the 4 km NAM was forecasting a weak band extending from Lake Erie across northern Pennsylvania. A stronger band had organized from southern Lake Huron eastward along the south shore of Lake Ontario. At 18z the forecast indicated that the Lake Ontario band would move south and rapidly dissipate, while another band appears to be organizing east of Lake Huron ahead of the next short wave approaching from the northwest.
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Slide 9