Summary / Conclusions

  • A potential severe thunderstorm event was anticipated for central New York and northeast Pa on July 22nd.
  • The region was located on the northeast edge of an upper ridge in northwest flow aloft.
  • Very dry air at mid-levels likely inhibited the convection.
  • Models varied with handling of an MCS that moved west and south of the area during the morning. Models that initialized with the MCS, such as the HRRR, seemed to have a better forecast for later in the day, indicating less convection.
  • MLCAPE forecasts were quite variable for this case, ranging from less than 1000 J/kg to nearly 3000 J/kg
  • High resolution model performance was variable for this case.
  • 0-12 hour forecasts from the HRRR were very good showing no organized potential.
  • The 4 km NAM model showed more significant storms but no up-scale organization.
  • Several members in the SPC SSEO implied a more significant event with some upscale growth of storms.


Slide 26