HREF - April 30 12z run - valid 21z - Probability of reflectivity > 40 dbz
Notes:
Output from current (left) and future (right) versions of high resolution ensemble forecasts (HREF’s) are shown on the next several slides. The future version of the HREF is the SPC storm-scale ensemble of opportunity (SSEO) with all models adjusted to 3 km resolution. For the probability fields, grid point probabilities are shown on the left and neighborhood probabilities, associated with a more smoothed appearance, are on the right. The April 30th 12z runs of the HREF showed high probabilities for a significant line of convection moving across NY and Pa late on the 1st.
Slide 17