Event

Low-lvl moist convergence

Warm cloud depth

Deep saturation skinny CAPE

MBE vectors

Bear Creek (May 28, 2002)

Models not indicating (misplaced bndry)

7000 ft

Yes

295 / 20 kts

June 13, 2003

Yes

10000 ft

Yes (NCAPE = .05)

285 / 4 kts

May 12, 2004

Yes

7000 ft

Yes

(NCAPE = .07)

020 / 5 kts