September 29, 2005

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Speaker Notes:

The application searches its data base of previous severe weather events, and returns the 4 dates that it considers to be "most similar". Sounding parameters from each of these 4 "most similar" events can be displayed by dragging the mouse over the date. The most similar event to December 1, 2006, was December 1, 2006 – not surprising. The second most similar event was September 29, 2005. Note that most of the sounding parameters on September 29, 2005 were quite similar to the parameters on December 1st, 2006. Of course, no two events are identical, that is why this application returns 3 other similar events; to give the forecaster a better sense of the full range of possible outcomes associated with this type of convective event. Key factors with this event appear to be large shear and small CAPE.