850-500 mb frontogenesis, 700 mb wind and temperature
Notes:
The data on this loop shows the development of strong frontogenesis (shaded) across eastern and central New York during the early morning hours on the 16th. The conceptual model indicates that intense bands of heavy precipitation would be possible along and southeast of the frontogenesis axis. This would imply the potential for heavy bands of precipitation along the east coast during the afternoon on the 15th, shifting northwest toward central New York early on the 16th.
Slide 10