NAM vs. RUC forecast soundings valid 12/12 00z - AVP
Notes:
The difficulty involved with the precipitation type forecasts for this storm can be seen by looking at NAM forecasts for some key points. The data on this slide shows the 00z December 11th NAM forecast at Avoca, Pennsylvania, valid at 00z on the 12th, next to the verifying 00 hour RUC forecast valid at 00z on the 12th. Both indicated surface temperatures very close to freezing, with a warm layer aloft. The warm air aloft was warmer on the verifying RUC analysis. These soundings both indicated rain, however there would be a concern for freezing rain at higher elevations.|
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NAM at KAVP | RUC at KAVP |
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Slide 22