Severe Checklist
Notes:
A closer look at the parameters associated with this “most similar” event indicated that while the sounding parameters were quite similar, the event on 7/27/2005 was associated with a progressive cold front, and therefore was not really a good historical analog for this case. The second best analog (08/14/2005) was a minor event associated with just 3 wind reports. The low-level (0-1 km) shear profile was not nearly as strong with this case. Based on these results, it appears that there were no really good historical analogs in our local data base to this event, indicating the potential for a rare event.
Slide 9