12 hr NAM 925-850 frontogenesis and 850-700 lapse rate valid 00z October 1

Notes:

The strong frontogenesis was accurately forecast in the short-term by NCEP operational models. This slide shows a 12 hour NAM forecast of 925-850 mb frontogenesis and 850-700 mb equivalent potential temperature lapse rate, valid at 00z on October 1st. The heaviest rains were falling along and just to the east of the axis of frontogenesis, in the zone where the negative lapse rates overlapped the frontogenetical forcing.

slide 10

Slide 10

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