00z high resolution ensemble forecasts
Notes:
The data on this slide shows output from the 00z run of the storm prediction center’s ensemble of opportunity, which is composed of several high resolution, convection allowing models. The output indicates the probabilities for 1) reflectivity values greater than 40 dbz, updrafts greater than 10 m/s, updraft rotation greater than 25 m2/s2, and surface wind speeds greater than 30 kts. The output indicated a high probability that convective storms would develop over New York and Pennsylvania during the afternoon on the 22nd. There was some indication that strong updrafts would develop with some of the convection, but the output was less indicative that there would be strongly rotating updrafts or strong surface winds.
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Slide 12