12z high resolution ensemble forecasts
Notes:
The data on this slide is the same as in the previous slide, except for the 12z May 22nd run of the ensemble. High probabilities are still shown for reflectivity values greater than 40 dbz, and the probabilities for strong updrafts and rotating updrafts also increased. The probability for strong surface wind remained low, with any chance apparently confined to southern Pennsylvania southward to eastern Virginia.
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Slide 13