Model QPF trends
Notes:
The data on these slides show the trend in model forecast liquid precipitation at Binghamton, NY (BGM), Avoca, Pennsylvania (AVP) and Syracuse, NY (SYR), with the earlier model runs on the left and later runs farther to the right. The right-most point on the graphic is the observed amount at the station. In general, models trended upward as the event approached. The NAM and GFS in particular were much to dry in early model runs, while the ECMWF appeared to have the best forecasts early in the period. The SREF forecasts appeared to be better than the NAM and GFS, but perhaps not quite as good as the ECMWF.
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Slide 16