NCAR high resolution ensemble – 00z 22nd run
Notes:
Some forecasts from a high resolution ensemble run at NCAR are shown on this slide. The ensemble is based on models run at 00z on the 22nd. In the mean, heavy precipitation is confined to the southern third of Pennsylvania with little to no precipitation indicated at AVP. There does appear to be some chance for 6 inches or more of snow extending just to the north of the moderate precipitation indicated by the mean forecast, however those probabilities remain just south of AVP.
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Slide 17