NCAR high-resolution ensemble – 00z 23rd run
Notes:
By 00z on the 23rd, the heavier precipitation has trended northward in the ensemble. The mean forecast for AVP is now close to a foot. However the probability of 6 inches or more is 70 to 80 percent, indicating that some of the models were keeping the heavy snow south of AVP. Regardless, this was quite a change in the output from this ensemble, which turned out to be wrong at AVP but right for areas just to the south including southern Luzerne county.
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Slide 18