Eta 15-hr forecast BUFKIT sounding at ELM valid 5/23 03z.

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Speaker Notes:

By 03z, the Eta BUFKIT sounding was forecasting that the CAPE at ELM would increase to over 1500 J/kg. Low-level (0-3 km) CAPE (in red, if the upper left of the hodograph display) was forecast to have increased to 133 J/kg, which is a high value. The CIN remained low: around 31 J/kg. The combination of high low-level CAPE and low CIN would make this a favorable sounding for tornadoes, however the warm front had lifted well to north at this time. LCL heights were around 1000 m.

Another thing to notice from this sounding is that the majority of the shear was located in the lowest 1 km. Storm relative winds at 5 km were fairly modest (from the southwest at 8 m/s).