Eta 6-hr forecast BUFKT sounding at SYR valid 5/23 00z.

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Speaker Notes:

Meanwhile, north of the warm front at SYR, this 00z sounding shows a 0-3 km CAPE of only 8 J/kg. The CIN (not shown) was 59 J/kg. The combintaion of weak low-level CAPE and strong CIN would make this sounding unfavorable for tornadogenesis. The mid-level storm relative flow is very impressive (20 m/s).

Caution: the convective parameterization scheme appears to have triggered at this time. As a result, the sounding is being artificially trended toward a convective reference profile, and may not be representative of the real conditions near SYR. The LCL height for this sounding is down around 300 m.