Mean snowfall and probability of 4 inches of snow, from analogue cases
Notes:
The images from this slide are from an application developed at Saint Louis University. The application ingests forecasts of several key fields from the GFS, and selects 15 most similar historical analog cases based on similarity between the GFS forecast and the historical events. The application selects the 15 most similar events by searching through data from 20 years of events, using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data set. The panel on the left shows the mean snowfall observed from the 15 most similar historical analog cases. The panel on the right shows the probability of 4 inches or more of snow, based on observed snowfall from the 15 analogs. The data indicated a mean snowfall of 2 to 4 inches for most of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, with potential for 6 inches across portions of eastern and northern New York. The probability of 4 inches or more of snow was less than 30 percent over central New York, increasing to 30 to 50 percent across eastern and northern New York. The application can be found at: CIP Heavy Snow Analog Guidance
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Slide 5