Summary
- The RAP and NAM models realistically forecast decreasing winds with height in the lowest 2000 feet of the atmosphere, despite neutral low-level stability indicating some potential for mixing.
- The RAP and NAM appeared to over-forecast the wind at 2000 feet at BGM, but forecasts may have been more accurate at AVP.
- Large stability above 850 mb may have kept the strongest winds from reaching the boundary layer through 03z. The stability eroded rapidly after 03z, and may have allowed some stronger gusts to reach the ground during the early morning on the 30th.
- The momentum transfer tool in BUFKIT appeared to be quite useful in this event. The mean wind in the mixed layer (bottom number) appeared to be a good estimate of lower elevation wind gusts. The wind at the top of the mixed layer was a good estimate of higher elevation gusts, when the top of the mixed layer corresponded to the elevation of the higher terrain.
Slide 38