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High resolution model Summary

• Poorest forecasts were from the 4 km NAM, convection did not initialize well, was too discrete and coverage too low, only a small improvement from 00z to 12z.
• Parallel NAM much better, more coverage, two lines, consistent from 00z to 12z runs.
• High resolution WRF window runs were poor at 00z, but improved at 12z
• SSEO runs were good enough to be useful. Bulls-eye of high updraft helicity is often a good indicator for significant severe potential and was in this case although location a bit too far north.
• Early morning NAMRR run was pretty good showing development of a convective line by late on the 25th.
• Early morning HRRRX runs not as good as the NAMRR, underdone with late-day convective development over southern NY/northern Pa. 06z run of the much-maligned NAMRR was very good.
• 12z HRRR and HRRRX both provided excellent guidance with very realistic and accurate evolution.