May 11, 2003 – The Null Event

Mike Evans

Index of Slides

  1. May 11, 2003 – The Null Severe Weather Event
  2. 500 mb heights and vorticity - 18z
  3. 500 mb heights and vorticity - 00z
  4. surface pressure and thickness - 18z
  5. surface pressure and thickness - 00z
  6. 250 mb winds 18z
  7. Eta Cape 21z
  8. Eta Helicity 21z
  9. Eta ELM sounding 21z
  10. Eta QPF
  11. SPC moderate Risk
  12. Summary of the forecast large-scale pattern
  13. Satellite image 15z
  14. SPC CAPE 16z
  15. SPC 0-6 km shear 18z
  16. SPC helicity 17z
  17. SPC EHI index 17z
  18. Satellite image 18z
  19. Satellite image 2115z
  20. Satellite image 2240z
  21. 4 panel reflectivity 2150z
  22. 4 panel SRM 2150z
  23. 4 panel reflectivity 2247z
  24. 4 panel SRM 2247z
  25. 4 panel reflectivity 2332z
  26. 4 panel reflectivity 2332z
  27. Summary
  28. Cloud Picture
  29. So what went wrong???
  30. 250 mb divergence 21z
  31. 450 mb divergence 21z
  32. omega cross-section 21z
  33. 600 mb winds
  34. PIT observed sounding
  35. Eta forecast PIT sounding
  36. IPT sounding
  37. Omega cross-section
  38. Summary…
  39. Another inhibiting factor with this event could have been the “narrowness” of the warm sector?
  40. Surface plot 20z
  41. MSAS analysis 21z
  42. Surface plot 23z
  43. Lapse rate cross-section
  44. Finally, let’s look at some parameters that have been shown to be related to tornadogenesis via the SPC analysis
  45. SPC low-level CAPE 22z
  46. SPC 0-1 km shear 22z
  47. SPC mid-level storm relative flow 22z
  48. SPC LCL heights 22z
  49. Summary of the SPC analysis
  50. Final Summary – What happened?
  51. Summary (continued)

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