RAP forecast soundings valid 00z
Notes:
RAP low-level wind forecasts at 00z at BGM and AVP indicated wind speeds of nearly 60 kts at 2000 feet during the late afternoon and evening, falling off to less than 40 kts near the surface. The reports of widespread damage at higher elevations in the Poconos indicate that some 60 kt winds likely occurred near the 2000 foot level, at least across northeast Pa. The momentum transfer numbers in BUFKIT at AVP indicated that the mixed layer would extend to about 1800 feet. The maximum wind at the top of the mixed layer was 61 kts, which may have been a good estimate for peak gusts in the Poconos, while the mean value in the mixed layer was 43 kts, which appears to have been a good estimate for peak gusts in the valley at AVP. At BGM, the mixed layer was forecast to about 1600 feet. The mean wind in the mixed layer (40 kts) appeared to be a reasonable estimate of gusts in the valley around that time.Click on image to toggle between images.
Slide 22