August 12, 2005
Mike Evans
Index of Slides
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August 12, 2005
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Outline
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Damage Reports on August 12
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Eta 500 mb heights and vorticity valid 8/12 18z
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Eta 850 mb wind and 250 mb wind speed valid 8/12 18z
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Eta Sea-level pressure and 1000-500 mb thickness valid 8/12 18z
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Surface Plot and HPC surface analysis at 8/12 18z
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MSAS sea-level pressure and surface plot at 8/12 18z
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LAPS pressure tendency and surface plot at 8/12 18z.
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Satellite Image and Surface Plot 8/12 18z
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Eta 6-hour CAPE forecast valid 18z
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RUC CAPE analysis at 18z
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LAPS CAPE analysis at 18z
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BUF RAOB 12z
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RUC and Eta 0-3 km shear at 18z
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RUC and Eta 0-1 km shear
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Summary
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Radar reflectivity and RUC 0-3 km shear at 1830z.
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Radar reflectivity and RUC 0-3 km shear at 20z.
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Radar and RUC 0-3 km at 22z
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Radar reflectivity and RUC 0-3 km shear 2230z.
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Summary – modeling research tells us that cells merge into a line when the shear is perpendicular to the boundary…
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LAPS 3-hour pressure change at 18z and 21z.
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KBGM 0.5 degree reflectivity at 1830 UTC
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KBGM 0.5 degree SRM at 1830 UTC
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KBGM 0.5 degree reflectivity at 1850 UTC.
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KBGM 0.5 degree reflectivity 1850 at UTC.
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KBGM reflectivity loop 18z-19z
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KBGM reflectivity 2105z
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KBGM 0.5 degree SRM at 2105 UTC
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1.3 degree KBGM SRM 2143z
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KBGM reflectivity 2143z
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KBGM reflectivity 2201z
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KBGM 2201z
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Max Vrshear vs. Range (rotating storms from 2003 – 2005)
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Adjusted shear vs. Range (rotating storms from 2003-2005).
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0.5 degree Vr shear vs. Range (rotating storms from 2003-2005)
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RUC analysis of 0-1 km shear and surface dew pt depression at 19z
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RUC analysis of 0-1 km shear and surface dew pt depression at 22z
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Summary
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How did the “similar sounding” technique work with this event?
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June 17, 2004 – Little Meadows Tornado
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2nd most similar case…
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August 29, 2003 - Chenango County Tornado
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3rd most similar case
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August 20, 2004 – No tornadoes
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500 mb patterns for August 12 and the 3 “similar” days
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Sea-level pressure patterns for August 12 and the 3 “similar” days
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Similar Soundings Summary
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